Washington — The fight against terror groups like al-Qaida and Islamic State has been ongoing for years, with the United States and its allies applying military pressure to push them to the brink. However, according to a top U.S. counterterrorism official, these groups have found ways to recover and once again pose a serious and lethal threat.
Speaking at a counterterrorism symposium in New York, Brett Holmgren, the acting director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, gave a rare public assessment of the current global terrorism threat landscape. He stated that groups like ISIS, also known as IS or Daesh, were at their weakest just a few years ago. However, they have now adapted and evolved in response to the counterterrorism pressures applied by the U.S. and its allies.
Holmgren pointed out that the threat posed by these groups is now more distributed, with al-Qaida shifting its center of gravity to parts of Africa after being pushed out of Afghanistan. Similarly, the Islamic State has been forced out of its safe havens in Syria and is now operating in smaller cells to evade detection.
While the desire to strike at the U.S. remains, Holmgren emphasized that the capacity and capability of these groups to carry out attacks on American soil is currently lacking. This is due to sustained counterterrorism pressure from the U.S. and its allies.
However, the threat from these groups has not disappeared. Instead, they have turned to the online environment to recruit and provide resources to individuals in the West to carry out attacks on their own. This has raised concerns among other nations, including some U.S. allies, who believe that the threat from hotspots like Afghanistan and Syria has not diminished.
A United Nations report released in July, based on intelligence from member states, stated that al-Qaida has actually thrived in Afghanistan, benefiting from the protection of the Taliban government and expanding its network of training camps and safe houses. Additionally, U.S. Central Command has reported that the pace of IS attacks in Syria and Iraq is set to double compared to last year.
Despite these concerns, Holmgren and other U.S. intelligence officials believe that the biggest danger currently lies in the use of technology by these terror groups. They have embraced AI, or artificial intelligence, to produce higher-quality and more targeted propaganda. This has proven to be effective in gaining followers and using AI-generated voices and images to help operatives evade detection.
The use of AI may not be sophisticated, but it has been effective in radicalizing and recruiting individuals, especially young adults and teenagers. This has led to a new generation of homegrown violent extremists that authorities need to worry about.
The recent October 7 Hamas terror attack against Israel, which resulted in the death of about 1,200 people and the taking of 250 hostages, has also sparked a “tectonic shift in the threat environment,” according to Rebecca Weiner, the New York Police Department’s deputy commissioner for intelligence and counterterrorism. She stated that the ripple effects of this attack will continue to be felt for years to come.
Holmgren also called the October 7 attack a “unique flashpoint” that has united disparate groups, from neo-Nazis to al-Qaida to Iranian-linked groups. This event has been the most consequential in terms of radicalization and recruitment since the 9/11 attacks.
There are also concerns that the AI-enhanced propaganda and recruitment drives have been particularly effective in targeting young adults and teenagers. The NYPD’s Weiner stated that these individuals are unable to incorporate the information they receive in the digital world into the real world in a safe manner.
In conclusion, while the U.S. and its allies have been successful in applying counterterrorism pressure and limiting the capacity of terror groups like al-Qaida and IS to carry out attacks, the threat still remains. These groups have adapted and evolved, using technology to their advantage. It is crucial for authorities to remain vigilant and continue to adapt their strategies to combat this ever-changing threat. The recent October 7 attack serves as a reminder that the fight against terrorism is far from over, and we must remain united in our efforts to keep our nations safe.
